when to flip a coin
RISK analysis is fascinating stuff. In business we constantly weigh up facts vs. feelings, but people aren rational when trying to judge risk and often make decisions without considering all the facts.
Market researcher David Lewis offers some simple advice for assessing risk.
He says we generally overestimate the risk/fear of things that are new or rare, caused by others, beyond our control, don bring any benefits or seem dramatic.
Conversely, we underestimate risk attached to familiar or longstanding issues, natural causes, issues we choose or create, things that may have reward, or seem harmless.
We also biased by our perception of loss vs. smoking socially seems safer than cliff diving on holidays. We evolved by seeing patterns in things to judge our safety (red berries in bushes mean danger) but seeing a “run of luck” or winning or losin free run 2 g streaks is a modern idea with little basis in fact.
Short story don make life choices based on free run 2 the odds.
His tip: Did you know that if you need to make a clear cut choice between 2 options then flipping a coin is the best strategy? The chance is truly 50:50, every time. Also, your gut preference for how that coin falls ind free run 2 icates which outcome you truly want, so ultimately you can overrule the coin.
My tip: Compare a Pros/Cons list on paper to see your information gaps and where you bei free run 2 ng rational vs. emotional.